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Live odds across 3 venues — Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & Limitless.
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polymarket
7999
manifold
5418
limitless
115
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60+ markets
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manifold
22d left
Will my this market post cross 200k Mana mark? (THIS ONE)
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$201.5K Vol
manifold
22d left
Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes??
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$67.1K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Yes
52%
1 market
·
$45.1K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?
0 markets
·
$28.6K Vol
manifold
14d left
Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$22.8K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?
Yes
62%
1 market
·
$22.7K Vol
manifold
5d left
Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC
Yes
69%
1 market
·
$22.1K Vol
manifold
14d left
Opus 5.2 released in September?
Yes
14%
1 market
·
$20.2K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will typical Americans be able to use GPT-5.6 Sol before Fable 5 again?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$14.2K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Count BinFace win the Clacton-by-election?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$13.6K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$11.6K Vol
manifold
4d left
Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana?
0 markets
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$9.9K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$9.3K Vol
manifold
4d left
The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$9.2K Vol
manifold
14d left
Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)
Yes
98%
1 market
·
$7.1K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$7.0K Vol
manifold
7d left
Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 before Sep 23?
Yes
80%
1 market
·
$6.7K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Mitch McConnell speak this year?
Yes
96%
1 market
·
$6.3K Vol
manifold
28mo left
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
Yes
7%
1 market
·
$6.3K Vol
manifold
15mo left
Will Vozinha join a decent football club in 2027?
Yes
6%
1 market
·
$6.1K Vol
manifold
9mo left
Will meta quest die out in early 2027?
Yes
73%
1 market
·
$6.1K Vol
manifold
8mo left
Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$6.0K Vol
manifold
4d left
Will Trump have a national address this week and call certain aspects of the AI race an imminent threat to humanity?
Yes
2%
1 market
·
$5.5K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$5.3K Vol
manifold
40mo left
Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?
Yes
28%
1 market
·
$4.7K Vol
manifold
174mo left
Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute
Yes
95%
1 market
·
$4.6K Vol
manifold
9d left
Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?
Yes
94%
1 market
·
$4.4K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Lebron James to sign with a former team?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$4.3K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$4.1K Vol
manifold
3mo left
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Yes
30%
1 market
·
$3.9K Vol
manifold
11d left
Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$3.8K Vol
manifold
3mo left
[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
Yes
100%
1 market
·
$3.3K Vol
manifold
3d left
Will Infantino win the upcoming vote for selling the FIFA World Cup?
Yes
3%
1 market
·
$3.0K Vol
manifold
1mo left
Will Graham Platner Drop out of the Maine Senate Race?
Yes
98%
1 market
·
$2.9K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$2.8K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Mitch McConnell make a verifiable, live public appearance before 2027?
Yes
98%
1 market
·
$2.8K Vol
manifold
14d left
Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?
Yes
93%
1 market
·
$2.6K Vol
manifold
11d left
Will Kirishima lose to anyone other than Aonishiki in the September 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (aki basho)
Yes
87%
1 market
·
$2.4K Vol
manifold
14d left
Will King Harald resume official duties by September 30, 2026?
0 markets
·
$2.4K Vol
manifold
15mo left
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Yes
33%
1 market
·
$2.2K Vol
manifold
20d left
Claude Haiku gets deprecated in the next 3 months?
Yes
34%
1 market
·
$2.2K Vol
manifold
15mo left
Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028
Yes
91%
1 market
·
$2.1K Vol
manifold
39mo left
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
Yes
20%
1 market
·
$2.0K Vol
manifold
40mo left
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Yes
18%
1 market
·
$2.0K Vol
manifold
1mo left
Will Kiros, Weiser, and Gonzales all win Denver County in the primaries on July 1?
Yes
96%
1 market
·
$2.0K Vol
manifold
13h left
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Yes
90%
1 market
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$1.9K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Bitcoin price reaches 80k before EOY
0 markets
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$1.8K Vol
manifold
8d left
Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Yes
0%
1 market
·
$1.7K Vol
manifold
3mo left
GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4?
Yes
2%
1 market
·
$1.6K Vol
manifold
2mo left
Will PSV Eindhoven defeat Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$1.6K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?
Yes
20%
1 market
·
$1.5K Vol
manifold
15mo left
Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?
Yes
86%
1 market
·
$1.4K Vol
manifold
8d left
Will Jannik Sinner OR Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Yes
99%
1 market
·
$1.4K Vol
manifold
2d left
SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?
Yes
23%
1 market
·
$1.4K Vol
manifold
5d left
US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026?
Yes
76%
1 market
·
$1.3K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Yes
43%
1 market
·
$1.3K Vol
manifold
3mo left
Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?
Yes
1%
1 market
·
$1.3K Vol
manifold
1mo left
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
Yes
42%
1 market
·
$1.3K Vol
manifold
3mo left
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Yes
4%
1 market
·
$1.3K Vol
manifold
3mo left
will i get expert in codeforces by end of 2026
Yes
98%
1 market
·
$1.3K Vol